摘要
以系统动力学为主模型,对江苏省未来城市化发展的4种典型模式进行了情景模拟与比较。结果表明,同时期内不同发展模式下的城市化所导致的资源环境效应强度存在较大差别。借鉴自然演变型、工业推动型和第三产业拉动型3种城市化发展模式,提出综合协调的发展模式;仿真比较显示,该发展模式既能有效化解城市化进程中的资源环境效应,又能促进城市化快速发展,是一种可持续发展模式。
The paper takes system dynamic model as a main model and uses the other methods to simulate and compare the four - urbanization models and their resource ＆ environment effects in Jiangsu Province. The result shows that there are different resource ＆ environment effects among the four - urbanization models. On the basis of the natural evolving model, industrial pushing model and tertiary towing model, this paper puts forward the comprehensive coordination model, and the simulation shows it can not only alleviate resource ＆ environment effects but also prompt urbanization, so it is a kind of sustainable development model.
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第2期61-64,79,共5页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
基金
中国博士后基金项目(20060400249)
江西省社会科学规划项目(06JL13)
关键词
城市化
资源环境效应
系统动力学模型
人工神经网络
模拟
江苏
urbanization
resource ＆ environment effects
system dynamic model
artificial neural networks
simulation
Jiangsu Province
