摘要
生态系统风险是在理解环境 problems.It isimportant 为地区性的生态系统风险 analysis.In thisstudy ，一些新指示物和方法学习并且发展量的方法因为测量绿洲生态系统风险被建立的一个新概念 usingreliability theory.These 指示物被连接流水资源，它是限制 factorin 的钥匙干旱区域绿洲 ecosystems.They 清楚的意思和罐头也在 Liangzhou 绿洲在不同 aridarea oases.A
Ecosystem risk is a new concept in understanding environmental problems. It is important to study and develop quantitative methods for regional ecosystem risk analysis. In this study, some new indicators and methods for measuring oasis ecosystem risk were established using reliability theory. These indicators are linked to water resource, which is the key restricting factor in arid area oasis ecosystems. They have clear meanings and can also be compared in different arid area oases. A case study in the Liangzhou oasis of the Shiyang River Basin in China shows how to calculate these ecosystem risk indicators. The results of the case study are as follows： the reliability indicator, risk indicator, stability indicator, and integrated loss indicator of the Liangzhou oasis are 0.686, 0.314, 0.743, and 0.301, respectively. This means that the reliability degree of the oasis＇s ecosystem safety is 68.6%; the degree of risk that it is unsafe is 31.4%; the stability degree is 74.3%; and 30.1% of the oasis＇s area is supported by over-exploiting underground water and damaging the lower reaches of the ecosystem. This result can be used as a guide in controlling and managing ecosystem risk in the research area.
基金
Project supported by the China Scholarship Council and the National Basic Research Program (973) of China (No. 2002CCA00300).
