摘要
根据森林病虫害发生面积具有趋势性和随机波动性特点，本文采用结合ＧＭ（１，１）模型与马尔柯夫预测技术的联合预测方法来进行森林病虫害的趋势性分析和状态预测，收到了良好的预测结果。
As spreading areas of insect and diseasos in forest have tendency and randomizing, this article hasadopted the modeI GM(1,1)and forecasting techniques of Markov to prejudge the trend and conditions in for-est-insect-diseases.And it has been achieved good results.
关键词
森林病虫害
马尔柯夫
预测
GM模型
Forest-insect-diseases,Grey-Markov Model,Forecasting of time Sequence
