摘要
在分析铁路货源货流数据的内在规律及其时间序列特性的基础上，提出应用自回归积分移动平均（ＡＲＩＭＡ（ｐ，ｄ，ｑ））模型预测其发展趋势的理论依据，详细说明ＡＲＩＭＡ方法的基本原理和建模步骤，并给出模型的实际应用效果。
In this paper, based on analyzing the internal regulation and time property of the railway freight source and flows' history data, the scientific basis of applying ARIMA(p,d,q) model in forecasting its trend is proposed. Then, the basic theory and the steps of establishing ARIMA model are introduced in detail. Finally, the practical effects according to the scientific research item are given.
出处
《铁道学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
1996年第A00期52-56,共5页
Journal of the China Railway Society
基金
铁道部科研项目
关键词
预测
货源
铁路运输
物物运输
ARIMA法
autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model
railway
forecasting
