财政赤字、实际有效汇率与贸易收支——基于中国数据的实证检验被引量：42

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摘要基于协整理论等时间序列处理技术,在4变量系统内对中国数据的实证分析揭示:贸易收支、财政赤字、实际汇率及GDP之间存在长期协整关系;财政赤字、实际汇率与GDP均是贸易收支的主要影响因素,财政赤字的增加和实际汇率的贬值在短期会恶化贸易收支,长期则相反,GDP的增长大部分年份会恶化贸易收支;财政赤字、贸易收支和GDP是实际汇率的主要影响因素,其中贸易收支的影响力度最大,财政赤字和贸易盈余的增加以及GDP的增长都会使人民币实际汇率有升值的倾向。本文研究表明,财政赤字、贸易收支和实际汇率等宏观经济变量间存在着复杂的联系和影响机制,但财政政策仍是调节中国贸易收支和人民币汇率的有效手段。

作者刘伟胡兵李传昭

机构地区重庆大学经济与工商管理学院重庆师范大学经济与管理学院

出处《管理世界》 CSSCI 北大核心 2007年第4期32-39,共8页 Journal of Management World

关键词财政赤字贸易收支实际有效汇率

分类号 F812.4 [经济管理—财政学] F832.6 [经济管理—金融学] F752.6 [经济管理—国际贸易]

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