摘要
利用多状态模型,预测了上海市未来30年人口规模、年龄结构、城市化水平,以及人力资本的变化趋势。无论从上海市经济发展对于劳动力的需求,还是上海市的人口结构看,一定数量的迁移人口对于上海经济和人口的健康发展是有积极意义的。
Employed multi-state model, the paper projects the population size, age structure, urbanization and human capital of Shanghai in first 3 decades of twenty-first century. Population projection reveals that migration is necessary to the sustainable development of Shanghai, especially in terms of labor supply and slowing-down ageing of population.
出处
《市场与人口分析》
CSSCI
2006年第6期1-11,31,共12页
Market & Demographic Analysis
关键词
人口预测
人力资本
迁移
population projection
human capital
migration
