摘要
对1960—2004年巴州巴音布鲁克及巴仑台山区年和春、夏、秋、冬季的降水变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:近45a来巴州北部山区降水呈增多趋势,其中巴仑台山区增多趋势明显。另外巴音布鲁克及巴仑台山区降水在不同季节的变化趋势和变化幅度不一致。对2004—2006年预测试验表明,均生函数预测模型对巴州北部山区降水有较好的预测能力,特别是对巴音布鲁克山区的降水预测相当不错。
The paper analyzed the precipitation features in Bayinbluk and Baluntai in a year and spring,summer,autumn and winter in 1960-2004.The results showed that the trend of precipitation variation was increasing,particularly Baluntai area,but the trend and range of the variation was different in two areas.The predicting precipitation test for 2004-2006 showed that prediction model was better, particularly in Bayinbluk.
出处
《新疆气象》
2006年第5期10-11,共2页
Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology
关键词
降水
气候变化
预测
precipitation
climatic change
prediction
