摘要
本文对国内石油生产、需求、进口和石油资源开采的历史情况进行了简要概括,在此基础上对未来我国石油产量达到峰值(Hubbert Peak)的时间及我国石油资源的开采年限进行了预测,并探讨了影响我国石油产量峰值的因素。预测结果表明,我国石油生产很可能在2020～2030年达到Hubbert Peak,此后石油产量逐渐降低,直至资源采尽。
In this article, the history of China oil production, consumption, import and reserve exploitation is summarized. On the basis of the historical data, the peak of China oil production （Hubbert Peak） and the lifetime of China oil reserve are projected. Factors affecting the Hubbert Peak for China oil are discussed. The projections show that China oil production will probably reach the Hubbert Peak between 2020 and 2030. Afterwards oil production will decline gradually, till the depletion of the oil reserve.
出处
《中国能源》
2007年第4期10-12,共3页
Energy of China
