摘要
运用动态计量经济学的分布滞后模型、单位根检验模型、协整分析模型和Granger因果检验模型,以及专利产出与经济增长数据,对首都区域专利产出与经济增长关联机制进行了动态计量经济实证分析。结果显示:首都地区专利产出与经济增长当前及之后具有两期的关联性,平均来讲,专利产出每增加1%,首都区域经济当年将增长0.4923%,专利产出在3年内共使得经济增长了0.9847%;专利产出增长与GDP增长存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系,但是其对首都地区经济增长促进作用还不够;专利产出是经济增长Granger意义上的原因,但专利产出没有有效地促进首都区域经济增长,二者之间没有形成一种协调互动的反馈机制。
Employing methods of PDL, ADF Unit root test, Cointegration analysis and Granger Causal analysis of Dynamics Econometrics, and using data of the patent granted and economic growth of Capital region in 1993-2004, the dynamic econometric relationship between the patent output and economic growth of Capital region is analyzed. The results show that the lag time of the patent output influence on economic growth is two years. Averagely, when the patent output increases 1 percent, the economic growth of the Capital region will increase 0. 4923 percent, and the economic growth increases 0. 9847 percent altogether in three years suppose other things equal. Although the trend relationship between patent output and economic growth has a long-run and stationary equilibrium tendency, the patent output does not have a prospective and stimulating function on the economic growth. The economic growth is the Granger causality of the patent output but the patent output does not promote the economic growth effectively,and a alternating feedback mechanism has not been set up.
出处
《工业工程与管理》
2007年第2期45-50,共6页
Industrial Engineering and Management
基金
北京市科委科学研究计划项目(Z0004094040112)
全国教育科学"十五"规划重点课题(DFB030294)
关键词
专利产出
首都区域经济增长
关联机制
动态计量经济模型
patent output
economic growth of the capital region
relation mechanism
dynamic econometrics
