摘要
笔者以液化天然气(LNG)接受站的生产工艺、设备、作业环境的特点为背景,提出一种基于模糊层次分析方法(Fuzzy-Analytic Hierarchy Process)的风险评估方法。首先,根据LNG接收站风险事故多层次、多因素及不确定的特点,结合本行业的安全标准,确立了LNG接受站的风险因素和评价指标,建立接受站的安全评价体系;随后,运用Fuzzy-AHP方法确定权重矢量和模糊评价矩阵,并通过模糊运算求出决策矢量,实现对风险因素的排序以达到风险辨识目的;最后,对国内某LNG站进行了实例计算。计算表明该接收站的硬件设施完善,但应加强风险管理,制定相应的措施应对因气候条件、储罐区管理不当及船舶安全保护不到位等引发的事故。结果表明基于LNG站的Fuzzy-AHP风险辨识模型的安全性综合评价是有效的。
According to the features of processing techniques, equipment and working environment in LNG （Liquefied Natural Gas） gas station, a risk assessment method for LNG gas station has been established based on Fuzzy-AHP （Fuzzy-Analytic Hierarchy Process） model Firstly, the risk factors and assessing indices for LNG station are determined and the assessing index system is obtained according to the risk factors analysis and safety standards of LNG industry. Then, the weight vectors and fuzzy matrix are gained, and decision variables are computed by fuzzy algorithm, through which the sequence of risk factors is obtained and risk identification is fulfilled. Finally, this method is exemplified in a gas station in China. The result shows that hardware subassembly of the station was perfect, but management for the tank zone and safety guarding of shipping was incomplete. It proves that the risk identification based on Fuzzy-AHP model is effective.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
2007年第3期131-135,共5页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(50474034)。
