摘要
给出了一种利用网格点的预报雨量来模拟区域内任一点预报雨量的方法,建立了预报雨量函数,进而得出预报雨量与实测雨量的整体偏方差的数学模型;利用QPF方法建立出准确率、预报效率、空报率、漏报率等评价预报方法优劣指标的数学模型,并对两种预报方法得出的数据进行了计算,得出上述模型中的数值如下:方案方法总体偏方差预报准确率漏报率空报率预报效率方法1 0.99987×10679.431%11.463%25.621%62.256%方法2 1.00518×10657.509%26.976%31.705%58.936%比较这些指标,可得第一种预报结果较好.
This text gives an estimate for a kind of exploitation mesh order volume of rain to the method that imitate a little bit any estimate in inside in district volume of rain, established to predict the volume of rain function, then establish the mathematics model that the special prescription of the whole differ; Make use QPF the method establishes the accurate rate, forecast the efficiency, get empty the report the rate, fail to report the rate, forecast the deviation the rate etc, mathematics that evaluation forecast the method the good and bad the index sign the model.
Combination mathematics software logarithms according to of handle, get an above number in the model is shown as watch below：
Project／Method Partial-covarince Forecast accuracy Fail to report a rate Empty report rate Forecast an efficiency
Method 1 1 0.99987×10^6 79.431% 11.463% 25.621% 62.256%
Method 2 1.00518×10^6 57.509% 26.976% 31.705% 58.936%
Compare these index signses, can get the first estimate method better.
出处
《大学数学》
北大核心
2007年第2期47-50,共4页
College Mathematics
关键词
细网格雨量函数
偏方差
QPF方法
fine mesh
the function of percipitation
partial-covarince bad
QPF method
