中美贸易顺差与人民币汇率关系的实证分析被引量：74

An Empirical Analysis about the China-USA Trade Surplus and RMB's Exchange Rate

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摘要针对中美贸易顺差与人民币汇率关系的问题,本文通过协整分析和Granger因果检验发现,人民币升值在短期难以对中美贸易顺差产生调节作用,从长期影响而言,人民币升值的影响作用也不大。此外,中美贸易顺差在短期还是主要取决于当前贸易收支的现实情况,而中长期则在很大程度上受到美国经济波动的影响。因此,人民币升值不会缓解美国巨大的贸易逆差,而且即使美国贸易收支出现改善也不会对美国经济发展产生显著的正面影响。 As to the relationship between China-USA trade surplus and RMB＇s exchange rate, through cointegration analysis and Granger causality estimation, the paper finds that RMB＇s appreciation causes no effect to the trade surplus in the short run and little effect in the long run. Moreover, China-USA trade surplus is mainly dependent on itself in the short run and decided by the fluctuations of USA economy to a great extent. Therefore, RMS＇s appreciation should not mitigate the deficit of USA trade balance, and can＇t produce positive influence on USA economy even if there is some improvement in USA trade balance.

作者王胜陈继勇吴宏

机构地区武汉大学经济与管理学院

出处《国际贸易问题》 CSSCI 北大核心 2007年第5期34-40,共7页 Journal of International Trade

关键词中美贸易顺差名义汇率协整检验 GRANGER因果检验 China-USA trade surplus Nominal exchange rate Cointegration analysis Granger causality estimation

分类号 F832.63 [经济管理—金融学]

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