摘要
采用1990-2004年的统计资料,分析了近15年醴陵市耕地变化与人口增长、经济发展之间的动态关系,建立了耕地面积变化与人口、人均GDP、固定资产投资总额、城市化水平之间的曲线回归模型。结果表明：1）15年来,醴陵市土地开发强度大,耕地面积和人均耕地面积经历了缓慢减少-快速减少的变化过程,特别是近5年间耕地流失达到一个高峰;2）醴陵市耕地面积减少与人口、人均GDP、固定资产投资总额,以及城市化水平之间具有显著的相关性,经济发展和人口增长对全市耕地面积变化影响仍然很大,全市耕地减少的趋势将在一定时间内继续存在;3）研究结果对当地耕地保护、产业结构调整,实现耕地资源与人口、经济的可持续发展具有一定的参考意义。
The authors analyzed the dynamic change relations between cultivated lands decrease and population growth, economy development in Liling City by using statistical analysis methods based on the statistical data from 1990 to 2004. Correlation models between the cultivated land decrease and population increase, urbanization level, total investment in fixed asset, and per-capita GDP were formulated. The results are the following. （1） The cultivated land in Liling City is characteristic of intensive use; the cultivated land area and the per capita area of cultivated land were all downward with a change from slight decrease to sharp decrease. Especiaially in recent 5 years, the cultivated land decrease reached to fastigium. （2） Curves described the relation between cultivated land decrease and population growth, economy development are remarkable significance and they indicated that the cultivated land area will decrease continuously in some years. Economy development and the population growth are still the main driving forces to the change of cultivated land decrease. （3） In order to achieve cultivated land, population growth and economy sustainable development, it is necessary, in future, that local government must pay great attention to change the mode of economy growth, enhance the step of industry structure upgrade and conversion, increase financing and technology devotion into agriculture, and strictly keep cultivated land impropriated from construction.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第5期186-189,共4页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
湖南农业大学人才引进项目“区域土地利用/覆被变化与生态环境响应机制”(690502)资助
关键词
耕地
动态变化
县域经济
醴陵市
cultivated land
dynamic change
county-level economy
Liling city
