摘要
为了探讨货币政策对房地产价格泡沫的有效性,首先较为深入地研究了房地产价格泡沫形成的宏观机理,在此基础上根据中国房地产市场现阶段的发展特点,构建了一个小型的联立方程模型。研究的主要结果为:信贷手段可以直接地影响房地产市场中的需求与供给,对房地产市场的调控应该以信贷政策为主,而当房地产市场出现过热势头尤其是泡沫极度膨胀时,应辅之以货币供应量的控制;外汇储备对商品房销售额具有较高的弹性并且影响非常迅速,应提高外资进入房地产市场的门槛;紧缩货币供应量在抑制房地产价格泡沫的同时也作用于实体经济,应在政策实施的成本与所带来收益的比较中选择最优的货币政策。
In order to study the effectiveness of monetary policy to real estate price bubbles, the macro - mechanism of real estate price bubble is deeply discussed firstly. On the basis of the mechanism and according to the present characteristics of real estate market in China, a miniature simultaneous equations model is constructed. The main studying resuits including： the supply and demand in real estate market can be directly influenced by credit measures that should be the main methods to regulate real estate market. On the other hand, money supply should be employed when there exist price bubbles in real estate bubbles. The foreign exchange reserves （FER） elasticity of total sales of commercial buildings （TSCB） is high and FER can influence TSCB rapidly, so some means should be adopted to restrict foreign funds to enter real estate market. The reducing of money supply can restrain real estate price bubbles,at the same time it can bring negative effects to real economy, the approximate monetary policy should be chosen through considering the cost and proceeds of the policy implementation.
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第6期9-16,49,共9页
China Soft Science
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(项目号:05BJY013)
上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(课题批准号:2006BJB014)
关键词
房地产
价格泡沫
货币政策
联立方程模型
real estate
price bubble
monetary policy
simultaneous equations model
