摘要
利用玛纳斯河流域绿洲区5个气象台站1961-2003年气温、降水和蒸发量资料，分析了该绿洲区气候变化趋势及突变情况。结果表明：近43年来玛纳斯河流域绿洲区年平均气温及四季气温均普遍升高，其中以春、冬两季最为明显；降水量的变化呈现出显著的增加趋势，1987-2000年比1961-1986年平均降水量增多24.8%。降水偏多主要是在冬季和夏季，分别偏多了24.3%和16.2%；四季和年蒸发量都是呈现下降趋势，四季中以夏季和春季下降趋势最为明显，趋势系数分别为-0.25和-0.37通过了置信度α=95%的置信检验；玛纳斯河流域绿洲区降水，用Mann-kendall方法检验在1983年发生了由低向高的突变，温度在1995年发生了由低向高的突变。这些气候趋势和突变现象的发生，都能明显地反映在荒漠生态与环境变化中。
In this paper, we analyzed the trend of air temperature, precipitation and evaporation. The results are as follows： The air temperature, precipitation and the evaporation were all increasing, wanning rate of mean temperature changes obviously in winter and have apparently warming winter trend. The precipitation in plain of Manas River area for the recent 15 years is 24.8% larger than the last 15 years. Relation coefficients of the temperature and precipitation and evaporation is positive in Manas River area, the temperature and the evaporation have a good positive correlation in common except in special years but the precipitation and the evaporation have negative relation. The wanning rate of temperature is greater from 1995 but doesn＇ t get to the level of jump change by the jump test to change of Mann-kendall means in Manas River area. Theprecipitation of Manas river area from lower level to higher level get to the level of jump change in 1983 by the jump test to the change of Mann-kendall means. Some significant environmental change events in Manas River are. directly related to the climate change. Of course the human activities in recent decades have become another important factor resulting in the environment change.
出处
《石河子大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2007年第2期141-144,共4页
Journal of Shihezi University(Natural Science)
关键词
玛纳斯河流域
气候变化特征
气候突变
the Manas River
the trend of climate
jump change of climate
