摘要
观点对立的两派在农村产权问题上固然针锋相对,但却有一个基本共识,即农业的低收入和劳动力过剩问题,必须等待进一步的城镇化才有可能解决。针对这个基本共识,笔者试图对近、中期的广义农业(即农、林、牧、渔业)前景做一个比较系统的探讨。首先,从近年人口与就业趋势出发,估计今后10年到25年的农业就业前景。然后,从近年的食品消费趋势出发,估计消费需求,进而估计相应的可能农业生产。最后,配合就业和人口变迁趋势估计每农业劳动力工作日数,从而估计务农人员的可能收入。我们的结论是,中国农业今天正处于大规模非农就业、人口自然增长减慢和农业生产结构转型三大历史性变迁的交汇之中。这样的交汇将同时导致农业从业人员的降低和农业劳动需求的增加。面对这样的历史性契机,政府若能采取适当措施,农业当前的隐性失业问题应该可以在近10年间改善,而农业的低收入问题也应该可以在今后25年间缓解。这条出路应以市场化的兼种植—养殖小规模家庭农场为主,并迈向绿色农业。其中关键的因素在于国家必须抓住眼前的契机,适当投资于农业和扶持农业,既是为缓解"三农问题",也是为城镇工业建立广阔的国内市场,借以促进全国民经济的连锁发展。
Two schools of thoughts seem to be diametrically opposed each other on the privatization of farmland, but they share a fundamental consensus: rural unemployment and low income growth can only be solved through urbanization. In other words, agriculture is a dead-end sector. Targeting this current general understanding, we attempt to evaluate the long-and mid-term growth potential of agriculture (in its broad sense, which includes crop cultivation, animal husbandry, fisheries, and forestry). First, we project the size of the rural labor force in the next 10-25 years according to recent demographic and employment trends. Then, we analyze recent changes in food consumption patterns to project demand for and production of agricultural products. Finally, we combine the demographic and employment projections with that for agricultural production to estimate the number of days of labor input for each farm-labor unit, and hence the growth potential for agricultural workers' income. We conclude that China is poised at the confluence of three historical trends, i.e., declining population growth, massive and expanding non-farm employment, and agricultural restructuring. The combination of these three historical changes implies a reduction in the supply of farm labor at the same time as the demand for such labor increases. In the face of this historic opportunity, if the government can adopt appropriate measures, the longstanding problem of hidden rural unemployment can be alleviated in the next ten years and rural income significantly improved within the next 25 years. The basic model, we believe, should be market-oriented small family farms that combine crop cultivation with animal husbandry and develop in the direction of sustainable green agriculture. The state should play a key role by grasping this historic opportunity, increasing investment in agriculture, and supporting family farms. This will not only alleviate 'the sannong problem' (the problems of agriculture, the rural areas, and farmers) but also enhance domestic demand for industrial products, with a positive chain reaction for the whole national economy. In our forecast for the future, the state provides services and support, with rural society being organized through wide-ranging voluntary cooperation and associations and being in a position to bargain in the market and with the state.
出处
《中国社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第4期74-88,共15页
Social Sciences in China
