摘要
通过对回采工作面瓦斯涌出量原始数据取自然对数为基础,建立改进的GM(1,l)模型。然后将其与马尔柯夫模型相结合,建立了改进的灰色马尔柯夫模型。利用现场实测数据比较改进的GM(1,l)、灰色马尔柯夫和改进的灰色马尔柯夫模型各自的拟合精度,结果表明,改进的灰色马尔柯夫模型是3个模型中预测精度最好的模型,结果正确可靠,有一定的普遍适用性。
Bastd on dealing with the initial data of the gas emissing quantity of mining coal face by natural/ogarithm, the improved grey model （1,1） is built. The improved Grey Markov prediction mode is built through uniting the improved grey model （ 1, 1 ） and the Markov mode. Comparing the fitting precision of the improved grey model （ 1,1 ） , the Grey Markov prediction mode and the improved Grey Markov prediction mode respectively through actual survey data in scene, it shows that the precision of the improved Grey Markov prediction mode is the best of the three and its result is correct and reliable, having certain general applicability.
出处
《重庆大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第6期121-124,共4页
Journal of Chongqing University
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(50534080)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(50574108)
