摘要
近几年来,伴随着我国的经济的快速发展,我国的贸易顺差不断增长,但到目前为止,对于我国贸易顺差的可持续性问题还缺乏全面、深入的研究。本文基于两个实际经济变量模型,对我国贸易收支出现顺差的原因进行了分析。本文认为,国内有效需求不足和国内投资过度扩张、贸易品生产相对过剩与公共品供给不足,以及国民储蓄超过国内投资,是我国贸易收支出现顺差的直接原因,而人口红利、大规模的工业化与城市化、地方政府行为扭曲、金融抑制等因素,决定了我国贸易顺差将在较长时期内存在,具有可持续性。
With the rapid economic development, China′s foreign trade surplus has increased continually. However, there is a shortage of the comprehensive research on it. Based on two actual economic variable models, this paper try to find out why the foreign trade surplus was occured in China. The reasons are as follows: the lack of effective demand and the excessive investment in domestic market, the relative surplus of tradable goods and the lack of public goods and so on. It concludes that the foreign trade surplus will exist in China for a long time and shows sustainable.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第7期58-65,共8页
World Economy Studies
基金
武汉科技学院2006年度院基金青年项目<我国外贸顺差的可持续性与外资政策的调整>(项目号:06QN005)的阶段成果
