摘要
应用复杂动力学系统自组织理论,综合研究了近40年现代大地测量学(地震地形变及GPS)对现今地壳运动的观测结果。在"不动点吸引子"、"极限环吸引子"、"环面吸引子"和"奇异吸引子"的作用下,现今地壳运动呈现出"稳定态(动平衡态)"、"周期态"、"拟周期态"、"混沌态"和"混沌边缘态"等多种动力学状态。观测结果表明,无论板块、块体、边界带、断裂带,还是速度场、应力场都呈现出数年至数十年尺度的地壳运动与百万年尺度的新构造运动整体一致。在地震等暂态过程发生后,现今地壳运动(时变过程、空间分布、频谱结构)仍将自动回归到"稳定态(动平衡态)"。观测结果证明确实存在"不动点吸引子",故而能使地壳运动系统长期保持在"稳定态(动平衡态)",即"自组织稳定态"。"自组织临界态"(SOC)是一种弱混沌性质的"混沌边缘态"(非稳定定态),只出现于地壳运动自组织过程特定阶段中的特定时空域。
Applying self-organized theory of complex dynamics vational results of present-day crustal movement from contemporary system, we have synthetically studied the obsergeodesy （GPS and earthquake crustal deformation） in recent 40 years. Because of ＂fixed point attractor＂, ＂limit cycle attractor＂, ＂tons attractor＂ and ＂strange attractor＂ dominating the dynamics system, present-day crustal movement presents the various dynamics states such as ＂stable state（dynamic balancing state）＂, ＂period state＂, ＂quasi-period state＂, ＂chaos state＂ and ＂edge of chaos＂. The observation results show that not only plate, block, boundary zone, fault zone but also speed field, stress field all over present the accordance of present-day crustal movement in several years or tens scales with those in neotectonics of million year scales as a whole. After transient state process（ earthquake, etc）having occurred, present-day crustal movement （ the changing process with time, the space distribution and the structure of spectrum） will return to ＂stable steady state （ dynamic balancing state） ＂ voluntarily. The observation results prove that the＂ fixed point attractor ＂ exists really and it keeps the crustal movement system at ＂stable steady state＂ （dynamic balancing state） , ＂self-organized stability＂. But Self-organized criticality （ SOC ） is a kind of weak chaos nature： ＂edge of chaos＂（ non-stable steady state）, appearing only in the specific space-time region in specific stage at self organization process of crustal movement.
出处
《大地测量与地球动力学》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第4期92-99,共8页
Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics
基金
地震科学联合基金(306001
106006)
中国地震局"十二五发展规划研究"
关键词
地壳运动
复杂系统动力学
自组织稳定态
自组织临界态
地震预报
crustal movement, dynamics of complex system, self-organized stability, self-organized criticality, earthquake prediction
