摘要
针对雨量丰富的南方地区出现水质型缺水问题,采用系统动力学方法,对其水系统做模拟分析。以上海杨浦区为分析实例,根据其特征设立模型,包括5个子系统、6个调控参数。通过调整调控参数,运行模型得到所需的3种不同方案。在此基础上,找出影响需水系统的主要因素为:水价、污水治理系数、节水意识、工艺改革。基于三种方案的作用参数和模拟结果,为解决水资源这一"瓶颈"问题,实现杨浦区水系统的供需平衡和区域的协调发展,提出具体的调整政策。其中,该政策的调控参考值(对应年:1990/1995/2000/2005/2010/2015/2020)为:水价TPW=1.3/2.7/2.9/3.5/4.7/5.2/6.8;污水治理率TRWW=0.73/0.79/0.84/0.85/0.93/0.96/0.97;节水意识为INDEX1=2.5(2005年后),INDEX2=1.021(2005年前);工艺改革系数为TRT=1/1.1/1.28/1.35/1.5/1.65/1.66。在实施相应措施的基础上,采用协调发展方案,预测到2020年上海杨浦区总需水量约14.0×109t,而预计工程供水能力可达到约13.9×109t,基本达到水系统的供需平衡,实现区域水资源的协调发展。
At present,the studies of water system mainly focus on water problems in arid region,while the pollution-induced water shortage problems are almost neglected.The relevant methods are mostly half-quantitative,and the results are almost macro-scope related suggestions.The pollution-induced water shortage problems takes on some characteristics,e.g.man-made effect,all-around in function and randomicity in process.The paper considers comprehensively the pollution-induced water shortage problem in southern China where water resources are abundant.And based on System Dynamic（short for,SD） water system under different policies is simulated.Taking Yangpu district in Shanghai as a case,according to its characteristics the model which includes five subsystems and six control parameters is built.The model runs and produces three kinds of desired schemes by adjusting control parameters.Based on the results the paper identifies the main impact factors of water system： water price,ratio of sewage treatment,consciousness of water saving,and technical reform.Combined with the simulation results,some reasonable policies are put forward in order to realize the balance between supply and demand on water resource,and to realize harmonious development in the region.The corresponding measures mainly refer to a rise in water price,consciousness of water saving and the ratio of sewage treatment,and reform technical in production,which can solve effectively the pollution-induced water shortage problem.Some policies depend on regulated and control reference values（corresponding years： 1990/1995/2000/2005/2010/2015/2020）： TPW（water price）= 1.3/2.7/2.9/3.5/4.7/5.2/6.8;TRWW（ratio of sewage treatment）=0.73/0.79/0.84/0.85/0.93/0.96/0.97;consciousness of water saving,INDEX1=2.5（after the year 2005）,INDEX2=1.021（before 2005）;at TRT（technical reform.）=1/1.1/1.28/1.35/1.5/1.65/1.66.It is predicted that water system balance between supply and demand will come true in 2010 because then the total demand of water is about 14.0×109（t） and the capacity of water supply arrives at approximately 13.9×109（t）.But the model can not reflect the pollution-induced water shortage phenomena due to pollution accidents;and can not provide quantitative relationship between some control-parameters,so both problems are the topics of concern in seeking for the solutions to the pollution-induced water shortage problems.
出处
《地理研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第5期967-974,共8页
Geographical Research
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)<城市发展中的基础科学问题>子课题(2005CB724201)
关键词
水质型缺水区
水系统
系统动力学
模拟分析
pollution-induced
water shortage region
water system
system dynamic
simulation and analysis
