摘要
基于南充气象站1951年至2005年的逐日地面气候资料，分别统计整理出南充1951-2005年平均温度、平均最高温度、平均最低温度、极端最高温度、极端最低温度、高温天气（日最高温度≥35℃）日数、低温天气（日最低温度≤O℃）日数、降水量、雨日和最大日降水量等气候要素。应用线性倾向估计、小波分析、R／S分析、灾变灰预测等方法对南充极端气候变化进行了研究探讨，并在此基础上尝试预测了未来南充极端气候变化的情形。研究表明：南充极端气候变化具有明显的多尺度振荡特征，并且振荡分量具有明显的年际、年代际变化。极端温度气候的变化特征具有地域特殊性，与全球变暖的趋势不一致。极端高温在年际尺度上均表现为降温为主要特征的变化趋势，季节内尤其以夏秋季差异明显。极端低温在年际尺度上表现为有升有降，但幅度都不大。季节内以冬季变化有所差异。极端降水气候的变化特征受地形和环流特征影响，总体表现越发的不稳定。夏季降水量变化特征较之其它季节极不稳定，而雨日变化除冬季外，其余季节呈一致的减少趋势。汛期雨日骤减，而降水量则成波动上升的趋势。这将增加汛期强降水事件的发生概率，给嘉陵江流域的防汛工作增加难度。年最大日降水量在近年来呈现出密集峰值区，这是强降水事件的先兆信号。未来年极端最低气温将继续上升，“暖冬”事件可能增多。汛期降水量将会增加，由于雨日持续减少，汛期降水将多以“强降水事件”出现，加重汛期洪涝灾害。
According to the climatic statistic data in Nanchong meteorological stations from 1951 to 2005 provided by the Data Center, National Meteorological information Center （China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, http：//cdc, cma. gov. cn/）, some climatic indexes including average temperature, average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, extremely maximum temperature, extremely minimum temperature, high temperature days （day maximum temperature more than 35℃ ）, low temperature days （day minimum temperature less than 0℃ ）, precipitation, rain days and maximum precipitation have been separately calculated. Using linear trend estimate, wavelet analysis, rescaled range analysis and Grey Prediction, the paper has a study on the extremely climatic variation of Nanchong and predicts its extremely climatic variation in future. The study shows extremely climatic variation of Nanchong has the following features： （1）. Extremely climatic variation of Nanchong has obvious feature of multi - range oscillation. （2）. The variation of extreme climate of Nanchong has regionality, which is different from the trend of the globe warming. （3）. The feature is influenced by terrain and circulation and is quite unstability, especially for summer precipitation. （4）. Extremely climatic variation of Nanchong has been predicted by way of rescaled range analysis and Grey Prediction. The results show extremely minimum temperature still keeps rising and warm winter may last longer. The precipitation in flood season also increases.
出处
《绵阳师范学院学报》
2007年第8期95-106,共12页
Journal of Mianyang Teachers＇ College
基金
中国气象局气候变化研究开放课题(LCS-2006-06)
绵阳师范学院自然科学重点研究课题
关键词
气候变化
极端温度
极端降水
南充
climate change
extreme temperature
extreme precipitation
Nanchong
