摘要
目的 探讨自动预警系统功效，为提高传染病预警效率提供依据。方法 利用重点传染病自动预警系统平台，采取13预警的方式，对甲肝、痢疾、伤寒与副伤寒、麻疹、流脑、乙型脑炎、疟疾与流行性出血热8种传染病在3个县进行预警试点研究。预警界值为P50，同时设置P60、P70、P80和P90作为参考。根据与前3年历史数据比较，当前值超过历史数据P50，系统即发出预警信息。结果 2006年8月1日～12月3113，系统共发出有效预警信息256条，不同地区预警信息差异有高度显著性（χ^2=363．95，P〈0．01）；预警界值和预警触发值在常见传染病与少见或低发传染病之间产生预警信息差别较大。结论 预警系统非常敏感，不同病种、不同地区应设置不同的预警界值。
Objective To approach effect on the automatic early warning system. Methods We conducted the trial study of early waming about the eight kinds of infectious diseases under the key infectious disease automatic early warning system platform with the way of daily warning, the early warning threshold value, that is, P50, P60 ,P70,P80 and P90 was set up. The warning information was produced when the present value is equal to or above P50 of the historical surveillance data over last 3 years. Results There were 256 items of information issued from the system in 1 - 31 August, 2006. There was significant difference on warning information in the different areas （χ^2=363. 95 ,P 〈0.01 ）. The results also showed significant difference of warning threshold value and trigger value between the common and seldom infections. Conclusions This early warning system is very sensitive. The threshold value should be set up respectively in different areas and different communicable diseases.
出处
《安徽预防医学杂志》
2007年第6期425-426,433,共3页
Anhui Journal of Preventive Medicine
关键词
传染病
预警信息
分析
Infectious disease
Warning information
Analysis
