摘要
将灰色系统理论引入到农业气象灾害的评价与预测中。根据福建省1980～2004年主要气象受灾面积资料，构造完全受灾参考序列，应用灰色关联分析得到每个年份的关联度，依照关联度排序结果对农业气象灾害进行等级划分，得到5个农业气象灾害重灾年份，发现重灾年的出现大约以4年为一个周期。最后用这5个重灾年组成新序列，运用GM（1，1）模型对未来重灾年份进行灾变预测，结果表明，2008～2009年福建省将是农业气象重灾年份。
The grey system theory is introduced to the assessment and forecast of the agro-meteorological disasters. Based on the statistical data of disaster area from 1985 to 2004 in Fujian province, annual correlation degree is obtained by grey relational analysis. Agro-meteorological disasters are graded and 5 heavy agro-meteorological disaster years are sorted out based on incidence sequence. It is found that the recurrence period of heavy meteorological disaster is about 4 years. A new series is formulated by 5 heavy meteorological disaster years. Based on GM （ 1, 1 ） model, the future heavy meteorological disaster years are predicted. The results show that 2008 and 2009 will be heavy meteorological disaster years in Fujian.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2007年第4期43-45,56,共4页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
福建农业科技攻关计划重点项目(2004N018)
关键词
灰色关联分析
农业气象灾害
灰色预测模型
评估
预测
福建
grey relational analysis
agro-meteorological disaster
GM（1, 1）
assessment
forecast
Fujian province
