摘要
以灰色理论的基本模型为基础,探讨了灰色模型的改进方法.分析了海底管道腐蚀因素与腐蚀量之间的规律以及应用灰色理论进行剩余寿命预测的可行性.提出了基于灰色理论的海底管道剩余寿命预测方法.利用灰色理论预测腐蚀海底管道剩余寿命的步骤主要包括:最小允许厚度的确定,腐蚀速率的预测以及剩余寿命预测.利用该方法,可以在测量数据很少的情况下预测海底管道的剩余寿命.
Based on the basic greymodel of greytheory, the improvement of grey model was studied. The law between corrosion factors and corrosion quantity was analyzed. The feasibility of using grey theory to forecast the remaining life of corrosive submarine pipelines was discussed. A method to forecast the remaining life of corrosive submarine pipelines based on grey theory was proposed. The step of this method includes calculating of minimum depth, forecasting of corrosion rate and forecasting of remaining life of corrosive submarine pipelines. Through this method, the remaining life of corrosive submarine pipelines can be forecasted when data Of cession are few.
出处
《上海交通大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第2期186-188,193,共4页
Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University
基金
国家高技术研究发展计划(863)项目(2001AA602021)
关键词
海底管道
腐蚀
剩余寿命
灰色理论
submarine pipelines
corrosion
remaining life
gvey theory
