摘要
中国持续上升并已达高位的货币化水平成为人们纷纷讨论的问题。经济发展与货币供求的关系是解决这一问题逻辑的起点。本文从现代货币数量论角度塑造指标M/YP,剖析影响真实货币化的经济、制度因素。构造GARCH模型,利用中国改革以来的数据实证表明:现代货币数量论中货币、产出、物价之间一阶长期平稳关系在中国仍然有效;经济增长率、经济不平衡程度、非人力财富占总财富比重、人口年龄结构、预期收益率及外汇储备等因素对真实货币化的提高具有显著的促进作用。
It has been a hot question that the level of China＇s monetary quantity is so high. The relationship between development of economy and the demand of money is the key answer of the question. This paper reconstructs the M/YP by the way of the theory of modern money demand, and analyses the factors of economy and institutiton. Based on this analysis, the paper constructs the GARCH model, draws some conclusions： the relationship among money, product and price in the theory of modern money demand is long and steady; many factors have manifest effect on the high level money, such as the rate of economic growth, the ratio of the human-wealth in gross wealth, the construction of the age of population, expected return and foreign exchange reserve.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第12期108-116,156,共10页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
关键词
现代货币数量论
真实货币化
失踪货币
The Theory of Modern Money Demand
Real Monetarization
Missing Money
