摘要
运用趋势外推预测、组合预测等方法,以奥运会、全运会、刘翔与其主要对手110米跨栏跑成绩为研究对象,从刘翔2008年奥运会成绩趋势预测、刘翔与主要对手的竞争实力比较、我国跨栏成绩发展水平与奥运会成绩发展趋势比较、2008年奥运会本土参赛优势效应等四个方面分析了2008年奥运会刘翔的竞争实力,经过综合分析,刘翔2008年奥运会跨栏跑成绩时间将低于12.95 s,刘翔大有可能卫冕2008年奥运会110m跨栏比赛冠军。根据预测分析,在备战中应进一步挖掘潜力、提高成绩稳定性、合理运用本土参赛优势与提高国内110米跨栏跑整体水平对刘翔2008年奥运会的高水平发挥具有重要意义。
Applying trend extrapolation and integrated prediction, the paper takes the performance of Liu Xiang and his rivals in Olympic Games and National Athletic Games as its objects, and analyzes his competence in 2008 Olympic Games from aspects of the prediction of Liu Xiang＇ s performance trend, comparison of competence of Liu Xiang and his rivals, comparison of hurdling level in China and the world, and advantage of amphitryon. It predicts that Liu Xiang＇ s performance in 2008 will be better than 12′95″, and has a large probability to defend his champion in 110m hurdling. Liu Xiang need to explore his potential, keep stable performance, make proper use of amphitryon advantage, and promote the total level of 110m hurdling in China in his preparation for the 2008 Olympic Games for a good performance.
出处
《北京体育大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第11期1567-1570,共4页
Journal of Beijing Sport University
基金
浙江省教育厅课题
关键词
2008年奥运会
刘翔成绩
预测与分析
2008 Olympic Games
performance of LiuXiang
prediction and analysis
