摘要
利用灰色控制理论对德山开发区电力需求量进行预测.用生成方法对原始数据进行处理,消除了影响电力需求量的众多非重要因素,并从原始数据中挖掘有用的信息,建立微分拟合方程,基于残差修正提出滑动平均法改进型灰色预测模型,增加当年数据的权重,避免数值的过度波动.德山开发区电力负荷预测结果表明该模型能有效提高预测精度.
The grey control theory is used to predict electric power demand of Deshan development area in this paper. Original data is processed by the Generation Method. Many unimportant factors affecting electric power demand are removed, and useful information is extracted from original data. The differential fitting equation is set up, and grey prediction model modified by slip average method is presented with residual modification. The current year data is possessed with high weight,wich avoids excessive fluctuation. Predicting results show that the model is effective to improve the predict precision.
出处
《电力科学与技术学报》
CAS
2007年第2期76-79,共4页
Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology
关键词
灰色预测模型
残差修正
滑动平均法
负荷预测
grey prediction model
residual modification
slip average method
demand predict
