摘要
为了评估中国公路交通业的CO2减排潜力,模拟了中国公路交通业的CO2排放量及相应的减排潜力,根据减排成本评估其可行性并识别了重点减排技术。对3个不同情景的模拟结果表明,2000—2020年新政策情景相对当前政策情景和基准情景的平均CO2减排量分别为65M t.-a 1和82M t.-a 1,平均减排成本为负值。以2020年为例,新政策情景的平均减排成本分别为-88.5元.-t 1。因此,公路交通业具有一定的减排潜力,实现减排主要通过车辆、道路以及燃料等方面的技术进步与替代,其中车辆技术改进为近期的重点减排技术。在公路交通业减排兼具显著的环境、经济和社会效益。
Three CO2 emission scenarios for China＇s road transport sector were simulated to analyze various potential growth pathes from 2000 to 2020 to assess CO2 emission reduction potentials. Mitigation costs were evaluated to assess the feasibility of each mitigation option and to identify high priority mitigation options. The new policy scenario could produce 65 - 82 Mt · a^-1of emission reductions compared to a recent policy scenario and the reference scenario. The total average emission reduction cost for the new policy scenario is - 88. 5 RMB/t in 2020 for example. Therefore, there is a large CO2 emission reduction potential in China＇s road transport sector. Technology improvements and changes in vehicles, roads and fuels will play important roles, especially the vehicle technologies. Although implementation of these mitigation options will require a significant initial investment, the emission reductions in the road transport sector will result in a positive return due to the large oil savings, which result in significant environmental, economic and social benefits.
出处
《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第12期2142-2145,共4页
Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)
基金
国家"十五"科技攻关项目(2004-BA611B)
关键词
CO2减排
公路交通业
情景分析
减排技术
CO2 emission reduction
road transport sector
scenario analysis
emission reduction options
