摘要
根据海河低平原气候与小麦产量资料,对气候环境及其对冬小麦产量的影响进行了研究。结果表明,近56 a海河低平原春季气温线性升高倾向显著,平均每10 a升高0.38℃;春季降水不存在明显的线性增大或减少趋势,2000年以来的气候环境不利于冬小麦生产。冬小麦气候单产与春季气温、降水有很好的对应关系,当气温距平为0.2～1.2℃时,小麦气候产量为正值;温度过低或过高都会使小麦减产,高温使小麦减产更严重;近年来气温持续偏高,小麦气候单产持续偏低。冬小麦产量对春季降水的需求有一个极限值,降水异常偏多和异常偏少都会使小麦减产。研究认为,通过改进种植模式、改善农田小气候,开展人工影响天气增加地面有效降水,可以增加小麦气候单产。
Based on the data of climate and wheat yield in Lower Haihe Plain, the climate change and it＇s impact on wheat yields are studied. The results show as follows： Spring temperature has significant linear increasing trend with 0.38 ℃ per 10 a during the recent 56 a; spring precipitation has no obvious linear increasing or decreasing trend; since 2000, the climate is not conducive to winter wheat production; climate yield of winter wheat has a good correlation with spring temperature and precipitation; when the temperature anomaly is among 0.2-1.2 ℃, the climate yield is positive; the climate yield will be negative with too high or too low temperature, high temperature reduces wheat production more; the winter wheat production has been continuingly lower due to the higher temperature these years. The need of winter wheat growth for spring precipitation has a limit, both too much and too little precipitation cause reduction of wheat output. Changing planting pattern, improving agricultural microclimate, and carrying through weather modification to increase effective precipitation in the ground can increase winter wheat yield.
出处
《气象与减灾研究》
2007年第4期20-24,共5页
Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research
关键词
低平原
冬小麦
气候变化
气候产量
影响
Lower Haihe Plain, Winter wheat, Climate change, Climate yield, Impact
