摘要
提出了基于自主特征的中国省际国内旅游预测模型,选取景点资源丰度、区域人口规模、人均GDP、城市化及受教育水平、交通网密度五个因素,以2002年和2004年中国大陆31个省区的统计数据为依据,建立了具有指数相乘结构的国内客流量预测模型,分析了各因素的弹性及边际贡献.将回归结果与统计值进行比较,确定了有关参数的时间变化规律和北京、上海、广东三个省区的偏离系数,用建立的模型对2005年31个省区国内客流量进行了预测,在95%的置信度水平下,模型预测相关性强、相对误差小.该研究可为中国省际国内旅游快速批量预测提供新的方法.
A forecasting model of domestic tourists of 31 provinces in China's Mainland is established based on the self-determination factors. The 5 impact factors of abundant of A-class scenery sights, province＇s population, the per capita GDP, the level of urbanization and education, location index of transport are selected, and using statistic data of 31 provinces in China's Mainland in 2002 and 2004, a forecast model of domestic tourists with exponent multiplied structure is built, the flexibility and the marginal contribution of various factors is analyzed. Comparing the results of regression analysis with statistical data of domestic tourists of 31 provinces, the time changes of the 5 parameters in the forecast model are analyzed, and the departure coefficient of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong three provinces are defined. Taking the 5 parameters and departure coefficient in the forecast model, the domestic tourists of 31 provinces in China's Mainland in 2005 is established, at the 95 percent confidence level, the forecast result is a strong correlation and the relative error is small. This work is provided a new method for forecasting the domestic tourist of 31 provinces in China's Mainland at speediness and batch.
出处
《陕西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第1期81-85,98,共6页
Journal of Shaanxi Normal University：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(03BJY0088)
关键词
国内旅游
自主特征
相乘模型
批量预测
domestic tourism
self-determination factor
forecast model
batch forecast
