摘要
环境预警以尽早识别环境演变中可能出现的危机为目的,在我国特殊的人口背景下,正确认识人口发展趋势对于合理进行环境预警有着重要意义.基于年龄生育率的人口预测模型结果显示,21世纪中国人口发展(总量、结构与城市化)将出现前所未有的变化,"大起大落"是最为显著的特征.根据预警原则,认为剧烈的人口变化将可能对环境演变产生两大方面不利影响:第一,过快的城市化以及盲目的城市建设将直接导致大量的资源浪费与环境污染现象;第二,人口剧变对经济发展可能产生的不利影响将导致环境污染防治资金投入不足.最后对预防上述环境问题的产生提出初步的建议.
Environmental early warning aimed at distinguishing crisis from environmental evolvement as early as possible, under the especial background of population in China, recognizing the population trends exactly will have important meaning to make environmental early warning reasonably. By the model of population projection based on Age-Specific Fertility Rate, population trends of China in 21st century（quantity, structure and urbanization）will turn to a predicament that never had happened formedy,＂increasing largely and declining sharply＂ is the most distinct character. Based on precautionary principle, considered that the egregious change of population may lead the environment coming worse in the future： firstly, urbanizing more quickly and blindly will bring lots of resource-waste and environment-pollution; secondly, population trends changed acutely may have some bad effect on the development of economy, which may reduce the investment of environment; and preliminary suggestion was also mentioned in the end.
出处
《河南科学》
2008年第2期244-248,共5页
Henan Science
基金
国家自然科学基金(40576024)
关键词
环境预警
人口趋势
城市化
可持续发展
environmental early warning
population trends
urbanization
sustainable development
