摘要
CPI中长期变动趋势的预测一直是困扰经济学界的一个问题。本文研究了CPI月度环比指数的季节调整,并建立了CPI中长期预测的模型,并利用该模型对我国2007年CPI上涨趋势进行了预测。
The forecast of the CPI＇s trend in long term is always a problem for the economists. This paper does some research on the seasonal adjustment of changes from preceding month of CPI, and develops a model to forecast the annual rate of CPI. This paper also estimates the seasonally adjusted annual rate of CPI of China in 2007.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第2期22-24,共3页
Statistical Research
关键词
CPI
季节调整
年率
CPI
Seasonal adjustment
Annual rate
