摘要
天然气产量的预测是气藏工程中的一项重要任务,它是编制天然气开发规划部署,进行天然气开发(调整)方案设计以及天然气开发动态分析的重要内容。目前国内对天然气产量预测主要的数学模型和方法有多种,如产量递减法、水驱特征曲线法、逻辑斯蒂(Logistic)模型、胡-陈-张模型、Wang-Li模型以及功能模拟(微分模拟和神经网络)等,本文引入提高预测精度的有效方法——最优组合预测,并利用基于模糊语言的模糊综合评判来确定组合预测模型的权系数,实例分析对比天然气产量预测的实现过程,取得了较好的效果。
The prediction of natural gas yield is a very important task in the gas reservior engineering, It is an important content to compile the deployment of natural gas development programming, carry on the project＇s design of natural gas development and dynamical analysis about natural gas development. At the present, About the main mathematical models and method to predict the yield, there are several methods in the national and abroad, for example, Yield diminish way, Water-driving diagnostic curve method, Logistic, Hu-Zhang-Li and Function simulation（differential simulation and NN） and so on, This paper makes use of the efficient method to improve the precision-Optimum Combination Forecast, and makes use of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to confirm the coefficient of the optimum combination model, and then analyzes the course of yiled prediction, gets a better effect.
出处
《内蒙古石油化工》
CAS
2008年第1期47-49,共3页
Inner Mongolia Petrochemical Industry
关键词
天然气
产量
模糊综合评判
隶属函数
组合预测
Natural gas yield
Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
Attribution function
Combination forecast
