摘要
文章运用1995-2005年省际动态面板数据研究了城镇与农村居民储蓄率的决定因素,并检验了凯恩斯绝对收入理论与永久收入假说(生命周期理论)对中国的适应性。计量结果表明:城镇样本较好地支持了永久收入假说(生命周期理论),农村样本则较好地支持了凯恩斯理论。长期收入增长率是居民储蓄率的基本决定因素,高增长是高储蓄的主要原因。另外,居民储蓄的行为模式、人口年龄结构、社会保障制度、不确定性、信贷约束以及地区差异都是居民储蓄率的重要决定因素,但这些因素对城镇与农村居民储蓄率的影响存在显著差异。
In this paper, we present dynamic panel data on Chinese urban and rural household saving rate at provincial level of the period 1995-2004. We conduct an econometric analysis of the determinants of household saving and test two kinds of income theory： Keynesian absolute income theory and permanent-income/life-cycle hypothesis. To summarize our main findings, we find that the sample of urban households supports permanent-income/life -cycle hypothesis, while the sample of rural household supports Keynesian theory in a better way. The long-term rate of income growth is the main determinant of household saving rate,higher growth leads to higher saving. In addition, the existence of habit formation, demographic structure, social security, uncertainty, credit condition and disparities among regions are important determinants of household saving rate, however, the influences of those determinants on urban and rural vary dramatically.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第2期53-64,共12页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70773073)
关键词
城镇居民储蓄率
农村居民储蓄率
储蓄决定因素
动态面板
urban household saving rate rural household saving rate determinants of saving
dynamic panel
