摘要
为了加强重大暴雨过程的快速评估工作,利用逐日降水资料对吉林省1951-2004年明显暴雨过程特征进行了分析,建立了反映明显暴雨过程程度的3项单项指标及综合评估指数,在此基础上对明显暴雨过程的评估等级进行了划分。利用综合评估指数序列的峰度系数和偏度系数对综合评估指数进行了正态性检验。由于综合评估指数符合正态分布,给出了其异常气候重现期评估指标。利用明显暴雨过程的评估等级指标以及异常气候重现期评估指标对2005-2006年的明显暴雨过程进行了评估。结果表明,该方法实用可行,可以满足快速、及时评估等气象服务的需求。
By means of the day-to-day precipitation data from 1951 to 2004 in Jilin Province, the characteristics of major rainfall events are analyzed and ：the single and synthetical evaluating indexes that can reflect the severity of heavy rainfall are built. The evaluation grades of heavy rainfall events are devised. The normality test of the synthetical evaluation index is conducted by using the kurtosis and skewness coefficients of the synthetical evaluating indexes. The synthetical evaluation indexes obey the normal distribution, so the evaluation indexes for the recurrence period of abnormal climate are given. By using the indexes of evaluation grades and the evaluation indexes for the recurrence period of abnormal climate, the heavy rainfall events from 2005 to 2006 are evaluated. The results show that the method is feasible and can satisfy the requirements of operational application.
出处
《气象科技》
2008年第1期78-81,共4页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
中国气象局基建项目"吉林省气象情报收集与决策服务系统"资助
关键词
暴雨过程
评估方法
正态分布
heavy rainfall, evaluation method, normal distribution
