摘要
日益高涨的房地产价格引发了人们对泡沫的激烈争论。本文运用功效系数法计算了综合预警系数,建立了基于BP神经网络的房地产泡预警系统,引入了敏感性分析甄别各指标在预警系统中的重要程度,并且利用北京房地产市场数据对其泡沫进行实证分析,指出该系统对于防范房地产泡沫,评价房地产市场是否处于健康和谐运行状态具有重要意义。
China＇ s real estate price rises continuously, which caused heated controversy about real estate bubbles. This paper innovatively proposes a hybrid intelligent system combining efficacy coefficient method and artificial neural network （ANN） that predicts the bubble degree of real estate for breaking through the limitations of conventional method. This paper conducts an empirical analysis on the real estate bubble in Beijing using the market data. Then it points out that real estate bubble warning system plays an importance role in preventing the occurrence of the real estate bubble and evaluating China real estate market＇s healthy and harmonious development.
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第2期122-128,共7页
China Soft Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70773030)
国家社会科学基金项目(07BJY059)
黑龙江省青年科学基金项目(QC07C111)
关键词
房地产泡沫
功效系数法
神经网络
BP算法
预警
主成分分析法
real estate bubble
efficacy coefficient method
artificial neural network
back propagation
early warning
principal components method
