摘要
将远洋航行船员的内在和外在环境作为人因失效根原因和关键环节进行分析研讨,指出其对船员机体功能造成的负面影响,而产生失效行为,造成船舶事故。基于马尔可夫链原理,建立远洋船员的机体功能状态在航行链中的变化过程矩阵。根据对中远集团部分远洋船员统计数据,建立机体状态初始向量,结合过程矩阵进行仿真,结果显示船员从第5个月时,开始出现再适应期(休船期)。考虑到航运业具体特点,远洋船员的航行时间以4个月为益,不要超过6个月。从船员机体状态适航性的角度,根据船员的状态向量的转换结果,分析和预测船员的适航性,对船员进行合理配置能有效提高船舶的航行安全。
The interior and exterior working environment of seafarers is explored as the key causes for human errors.It is pointed out that the negative effect of the environment on seafarers＇ organism function causes fault behaviors that lead to ship accidents.Based on Markov chain theory,a process matrix for the change of seafarers＇ organism function state in shipping chain is set up.According to the statistical data from Zhongyuan Group,initial vectors of organism state are given,and a simulation is conducted by combining the process matrix.The result shows that the maladjustment of mariners begins to appear from the 5th month.（rest sailing schedule）.In consideration of the specific characteristics of shipping,the best shipping voyage time for seafarers is 4 months,and never more than 6 months.Finally,based on the converted results of seafarers＇ state vectors,the navigability of seafarers is analyzed and predicted,which is favorable to the reasonable allocation of seafarers and to the improvement of the shipping on flexibility,reliability and safety.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
2008年第1期67-71,共5页
China Safety Science Journal
