摘要
本文通过对历史文献资料的统计与分析,以关中地区1801-2005年的洪涝灾害等资料为依据,基于MATLAB分析了这一时期该地区洪涝灾害的时间变化特征、空间变化趋势,并应用了在最小二乘法意义下7次多项式的拟合预测了该地区未来五年(2006-2010年)洪涝灾害发展趋势。结果表明,该地区近200年以来,共发生洪涝灾害83次,平均每2.47年一遇,其中1850-1930年洪涝灾害发生频率明显增加,三十年代遭遇最为频繁,从这以后又逐渐减少;二十世纪三十年代洪涝灾害发生频率有明显增加的趋势,尤其在六十年代发生频率达到最高。关中地区的五个省辖区中,从整个这一时期来看渭南地区遭受洪涝灾害最为频繁,铜川受灾较轻,其他三个地区居于中间;洪涝灾害的阶段性、地区分布的不均匀性,与该地区的自然条件、所处的气候背景以及人类活动有关。预测了在未来的5年(2006-2010年)内,将发生0.9653次洪涝灾害。
Through the collection and analysis to the historical materials of the flooding disaster in Guanzhong area in 1801 -2005, and with 7 muhinomials in the least squares method, the flooding disaster development tendency in this area in future five years （2006 -2010） was forecasted, the time and spatial characteristics of the flooding disaster in Guanzhong were studied by MATLAB. The results showed that flooding disaster of the recent 200 years altogether accured 83 times, and averagely occurred one time per 2.47 years. The frequency of flooding disaster increased obviously during 1850 -1930, in the 30＇s of 20th century the frequency of flooding disaster increased obviously, especially in the 1960＇s. In the five districts of Guanzhong area, Weinan City suffered the flooding disaster most frequently, Tongchuan did lightly. It was forecasted that there will have 0. 9653 times of flooding disaster in the future 5 years （2006 -2010）.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第4期96-99,共4页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
关键词
关中地区
洪涝灾害
变化趋势
洪灾频发期
Guanzhong area
flooding disaster
change tendency
flood disaster frequency
