摘要
在银川市城市活断层探测项目中，针对工作区强震记载少且空档大、活动断层相距近等问题，应用弱震和部分比较可信的强震发生率，提出相应的方法计算了相关的地震活动参数，最后给出了工作区各活动断裂分段未来一定年限内各震级档的条件发震概率和合成发震概率，以及可能发生的最大震级等。
In the project of urban active fault exploration for Yinchuan City, aiming at some questions of few strong shock records, large interval of strong shock magnitude and active, faults being close apart in research area ,we apply occurrence rate of weak shock and some strong shock having relative credibility to put forward corresponding method computing correlative parameters of seismic activity. Finally we gain conditional probability and compound probability of each magnitude interval of segments of each active fault in research area among certain years in the future, and the largest earthquake probably occurring.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第B12期79-83,共5页
Journal of Natural Disasters
关键词
城市活断层探测
研究区
最大熵原理
条件概率
city active fault exploration
research area
maximum entropy principle
conditional probability
