摘要
气候变化和人的活动是到多山的河里的沉积变化的主要影响因素。基于超过 40 年“记录，在在 Yuanjiang 河(上面的红河) 的更低的活动范围计量车站的 Manhao 的推迟的沉积负担(SSL ) 变化。在这篇论文，沉积和它的驱动程序的变化通过象同步数据比较，传统的关联，线性回归，和 Granger 诱发性那样的不同方法被分析。结果证明(1 ) 年度平均沉积集中(SSC ) 和在 Manhao 车站的 SSL 的一般趋势从 1960 年代正在增加到 1990 年代，并且在 1984 以后有一个快变化时期；( 2 )在1960年代，1970年代，1980年代和1990年代的不同时期期间，在 Manhao 车站的 SSL 和 SSC 是 1.87 ， 2.49 ， 3.129 3.63 kg/m ( 3 )，和 28.7x 10 ( 6 )， 40.3 x 10 ( 6 )， 44.1 x 10 ( 6 )， 60.3 x 10 ( 6 ) t/a 分别地；( 3 )关联分析和 Granger 诱发性测试证明在集水的气候变化是到在1960年代和1990年代的时期的沉积变化的主要开车因素，但是由沉积变化上的多山的人的行动的影响由气候在1970年代和1980年代改变的本地人是比那强烈的；(4 ) 在沉积变化和森林范围变化之间的关联是否定的，它进一步证明沉积变化被人的活动强烈在盆影响。
Both the climate change and human activities are the major influence factors to the sediment change in mountainous rivers. Based on the over 40 years＇ record, suspended sediment loads （SSL） change at the Manhao gauging station in the lower reaches of Yuanjiang River （upper Red River）. In this paper, the variation of the sediment and its drivers were analyzed through different methods such as synchronous data comparison, traditional correlation, linear regression, and Granger causality. The results show that （1） the general trend of the annual average sediment concentration （SSC） and SSL at Manhao station is increasing from the 1960s to the 1990s, and there is a quick change period after 1984; （2） the SSL and SSC at Manhao station, during different periods of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, are 1.87, 2.49, 3.12, 3.63 kg/m^3, and 28.7×10^6, 40.3×10^6, 44.1×10^6, 60.3×1 0^6 t/a, respectively; （3） the correlation analysis and the Granger causality test proved that the climate changes in the catchment were the main driving factors to the sediment variation in the period of 1960s and 1990s, but the influence by the mountainous human actions on the sediment change is stronger than that by the local climate changes in the 1970s and 1980s; （4） the correlation between the sediment changes and the forest coverage change is negative, which further proves that the sediment changes are strongly affected by the human activities in the basin.
基金
Supported by the National Key Project for Basic Research of China(Grand No.2003CB415105)
关键词
沉积物
气候变化
红河
纵向岭谷区
sediment change, Granger causality test, Yuanjiang River, the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region
