摘要
本文研究认为,现有关于中国粮价和通货膨胀关系的研究,存在对Granger因果检验的误解及建模技术运用不足的问题。通过导入政府的行为,运用误差修正模型分析新中国成立后中国粮食价格指数和通货膨胀之间的长期关系,本文证实在政府对粮食市场干预的过程中,存在对城市消费者和农村粮食生产者之间的利益权衡,导致粮食价格和通货膨胀间的长期均衡,同时它们之间存在双向的因果关系。
After pointing out the misunderstanding of ＂Granger Causality＂ and the insufficiency of the econometric methods in the current studies of the causality between grain price and inflation in China, this study reexamines the aforementioned relation using vector error correction model and involving the behaviors of the government, and finds that there is a trade-off of the interests between urban consumers and rural grain producers for the policy makers which leads to a long-run equilibrium and a dualdirection causal relationship between grain price and inflation under the background of strong regulation on the grain price in China, which is different from the current studies.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第4期29-39,共11页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地中国人民大学经济改革与发展研究院项目资助
中国人民大学“985工程”项目资助
