摘要
引入广义梯形模糊数描述风险等级,增加了评价者的置信度指标。提出由顶点间距和重心间距相结合的综合贴近度概念,合理解决了模糊语言与模糊数的匹配关系。利用乐观指标把风险和风险报酬结合起来,建立基于双理想点的风险优属度模型,克服了传统风险度量模型只考虑风险而不考虑风险报酬的弊端。对几个舰船装备研制方案进行风险分析,MALTLAB仿真计算结果表明,风险优属度模型直接反映出了决策者自身的风险偏好程度,更加符合实际决策过程。
The paper introduces generalized trapezoidal fuzzy number to describe risk rate, which adds a degree of confidence of estimator＇s opinion. And puts forward integrated closeness based on peakspace and barycenter-space to solve the matching relation between fuzzy numbers and fuzzy language. The risk-priority-model connects risk and risk reward together by optimistic index, which overcomes the shortcoming of traditional risk model without regard to risk reward. The paper demonstrates the risk analysis of ship development plans, through MALTLAB simulating and calculating a series of figures and results are produced,which can provide decision support to the decision-makers by his characteristics and accords with true process.
出处
《舰船科学技术》
北大核心
2008年第2期112-116,138,共6页
Ship Science and Technology
基金
海军装备研究院资助项目(YJY-2005-A1-ZH017)
关键词
风险分析
风险优属度
广义梯形模糊数
综合贴近度
装备研制方案
risk analysis
risk-priority-model
generalized trapezoidal fuzzy number
integratedcloseness
ship development plan
