摘要
本文根据随机过阈理论,提出了海浪波面高度在一定时间间隔内超过某一阈值K次的概率预报模型,给出了模型中参数与海浪能量谱密度函数的关系,在数字计算机上仿真了海浪,利用仿真数据对所提出的预报模型进行了仿真检验.结果表明:本文提出的概率预报模型是可以的,利用本文的研究结果可方便地进行海浪波面高度超过某一阈值的概率预报问题.
The probability forecast mathematical models describing sea wave surface leaps over a threshold value during certain time is proposed on the basis of the stochastic process of leaps over a threshold value.The relationship between the parameters in the models and the energy spectrum density function of the sea wave is also given.The sea wave surface is simulated, and the models proposed in this paper are verified by means of simulation data.The results show that the probability forecast mathematical models proposed are available ,and by means of the study results the probability forecast of sea wave surface leaps over a threshold value can be carried out convenidntly.
关键词
海浪
阈值
概率
预报
仿真
sea wave, threshold value, probability forecast, digital simulation
