摘要
在分析过去基于统计—动力月降水距平百分率预报方程基础上,建立了以500 hPa月平均高度场为核心的相似—动力月降水预报方程。以安徽省1998—2004年各月的降水为预报对象,发现该方法对安徽省月降水预报具有一定的预报能力。文中指出该方法对安徽省每年3月、11月月降水预报效果较好,6月、10月月降水预报效果较差;由于引起1999年气候异常的原因有其独特性,导致无法选择到足够合适的历史资料来反演方程的系数,这可能是1999年月降水预报结果相对较差的主要原因。
Based on the analysis of monthly precipitation forecast equation, similar-dynamical monthly precipitation forecast equation which takes 500 hPa height field as the core has been established. With monthly precipitation of the Anhui province during 1998-2004 for forecast object, this paper discovers that this method for monthly precipitation forecast in Anhui province has better application value. This paper also indicates that the method of forecast has better effect for Mar. and Nov. each year, but for Jun. and Oct. each year its effect of forecast is worse. Because the reasons that caused climate abnormality in 1999 are particular, this results in lacking in enough and appropriate historical data for equation coefficients; it may be the reason why the forecasted result in 1999 is worse.
出处
《气象科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第2期190-196,共7页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
基金
中国气象局预测减灾应用技术开发推广项目“T63月动力延伸预报解释应用技术面向省级短期气候预测业务的推广”
安徽省气象局2005年度科技带头人专项“安徽汛期旱涝气候变化及预测研究”
关键词
相似-动力方法
动力延伸预报
月降水预报
Similar-dynamical method Dynamical extended range forecast Monthly precipitation forecast
