摘要
植物保护是个充满风险的农事活动,首先界定了生产者植保风险并进行风险分类,找出了各类风险的风险因素,建立了风险综合评价指标体系,说明了评估风险的方法。其次,定义了区域植保风险,探讨了该风险的可能分布类型及假设检验、风险区间及概率计算方法,并对我国水稻主要病虫害的植保风险进行了实例分析。最后,提出了若干降低植保风险的措施。图1,表3,参14。
There are risks in plant protection. This paper reviews some conceptions of risk. Some conceptions of including natural risk, technological risk, service risk,marketing risk,managerial risk in plant protection was presented, Comprehensive evaluation index system and evaluation method were established for producer to evaluate risk in plant protection. Risk of plant protection in a region was described, the risk probability distributing test procedure, risk interval and corresponding probability calculating method were designed.The risk of rice production due to pest in China together with the risk probability distribution, risk interval and the corresponding probability were all demonstrated. Some measures for decrease risk in plant protection were presented.
出处
《农业系统科学与综合研究》
CSCD
2008年第2期148-152,共5页
System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究2006年度规划项目(306JA790021)
关键词
植保风险
风险评价
风险分布
风险管理
risk in plant protection
risk evaluation
risk probability distribution
risk management
