摘要
在电力市场逐步形成的形势下,电力负荷预测在电力系统规划和电网运行方面发挥着越来越重要的作用,其方法的研究也显得越来越重要。结合某省电网规划,在相关电力负荷预测理论及实践的基础上,从适用条件、数据形式、计算难度和适用范围等方面对电力负荷预测常用的几种方法(趋势外推法、单耗法、弹性系数法、回归分析法及灰色预测法)进行了分析、比较,并给出了相应的结论。
In the situation of the electric power market coming into gradually,electric power load prediction plays an increasingly important role in the electric power layout and running of electric power network, and the research about its method also appears to have become increasingly important. This paper, combining electric power network layout of a certain province, on the basis of interrelated the theory and the practice of electric power load forcecasting,analyses and compares the common methods （ trend extrapolation, per unit consumption, elastic coefficient, regression analysis and grey model of electric power load forcecasting, and gives the corresponding conclusions.
出处
《湖北电力》
2008年第2期13-15,共3页
Hubei Electric Power
关键词
负荷预测
趋势外推法
单耗法
弹性系数法
回归分析法
灰色预测法
load forcecasting
trend extrapolation
per unit consumption
elastic coefficient
regression analysis
grey model
