摘要
城市的可持续发展已经成为了社会的主题，而人口是可持续发展的关键．本文根据昆明市历年人口数量资料和发展趋势，预测昆明市2020年的人口数量，同时结合昆明市经济发展水平、土地资源现状、水资源问题和生态环境，从不同的角度预测昆明市2020年的适宜人口规模．通过本文研究，预测得到昆明市2020年人口数量为（654．50—721．50）万人，而适宜人口规模为（490—550）万人，可见合理的控制人口规模是实现昆明市可持续发展的重点，最后本文对昆明市可持续发展的人口问题提出几点建议．
The sustainable development of a city is the main subject of the society, and population is a key to it. Referring to the information of the population quantity and current developing trend of Kunming, the number of Kurrming＇s population in 2020 is forecasted in this paper. The suitable population is stated from various angles such as economic development, land resource, water resource and ecological environment. According to the esti- mation, the population will be 6. 5450 million to 7. 2150 million in 2020, while the suitable number should be 4. 9000 million to 5. 5000 million. It is then made clear that population control is vital to the sustainable development in Kunming. Several advices on this issue are finally out forward.
出处
《昆明理工大学学报（理工版）》
2008年第2期72-76,共5页
Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition)
关键词
人口规模
人口容量
人口预测
昆明市
人口控制
可持续发展
population scale
population carrying capacity
Kunming city
population - forecasting
population control
sustainable development
