摘要
洪涝灾害是中国最为严重的自然灾害之一,给湘江流域(位于长江中下游)带来了众多的人员伤亡与巨大的经济损失,成为该区域可持续发展的严重障碍。以4-8月份总降水量和大雨强度(日降水量大于25 mm)以上降水的频次为指标,分析了湘江流域近50年(1951-1998年)的降水与灾害严重程度的关系。研究表明:(1)湘江流域洪涝灾害程度在1981年前后发生了突变,呈现出显著上升趋势;根据其年代际波动特征可分为3个阶段:即1951-1965年的波动加剧阶段,1965-1973年的波动减轻阶段以及1973-1998年的波动加剧阶段;(2)近50年来湘江流域4-8月份总降水量和大雨强度以上降水频次没有明显的趋势变化,但其存在年代际尺度上的波动,可分为4段:即1951-1967年的波动减少阶段,1967-1977年的波动增加阶段,1977-1992年的波动减少阶段以及1992-1998年的波动增加阶段;(3)自每年4月1日开始,每5天统计一次该时段内的大雨强度以上总降水量,结果表明,自1980年以来,大雨强度以上降雨在时间上有向5、6月份集中的趋势;(4)随着社会经济财富的增加,洪涝灾害在加剧,人类对洪涝适应性对策(包括消极的经济欠发展行动和积极的兴修水利策略)在一定程度上可以缓解洪涝灾害。
Flood disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in China, which has caused numerous deaths and injury, as well as tremendous economic losses, and restricted the local sustainable development sharply. Took the total rainfall and frequency of rainfall events with heavy intensity （ daily rainfall greater than 25mm） from April to August as indices, the relationship between the rainfall and flood disaster from the year 1951 to 1998 in Xiangjiang River Basin was analyzed. Four conclusions are found, （ 1 ） an abrupt change of flood disaster degree was detected around the year 1981 and since then it climbed up to a more serious state. According to its fluctuation character, the flood disaster degree from 1951 to 1998 can be divided into three phases, namely 1951 -1961 ＇s aggravating phase, 1965 - 1973＇ s mitigatory phase and 1973 - 1998＇ s aggravating phase. （2） The total rainfall and frequency of rainfall events with heavy intensity from April to August in recent fifty years have no stable change trend but with inter-decadal fluctuation, based on this their variation can be cut to four periods, namely 1951 - 1967＇ s decreasing period, 1967 - 1977＇ s increasing period, 1977 - 1992＇ s declining period and 1992 - 1998＇ s climbing up period. （3） Start from April 1 st of each year, the total amount of rainfall with heavy intensity every five days were calculated, and rainfall events with heavy intensity were found to be centralized to May and June. （4） As the increasing of socio-economic wealth, flood disaster aggravates and adaptive strategies can mitigate flood disaster to some extent.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第1期92-96,共5页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
快速城市化地区自然灾害综合风险评价及减灾范式研究项目(40535024)
国家自然科学基金重大国际(地区)合作项目(40521140276)
关键词
洪涝灾害
降水量
降水极端事件
社会经济系统
湘江流域
flood and waterlogging disaster
rainfall
extreme rainfall events
socio-economic system
Xiangjiang River Basin
