摘要
采用投入产出法。估算了1997-2006年中国进出口贸易中的隐含能。在考虑隐含能和进出口能源产品的情况下，都按我国的能耗效率对进出口进行的保守估计发现：1997-2006年，我国的能源进出口基本持平．其中1999-2005年是一个微弱的能源净进口国，而1997。1998和2006年却是能源净出口国；按照日本的能耗效率对进口产品进行调整后的乐观估计发现中国则是一个更大的能源净出口国，每年能源净出口量在10000-50000万t标煤之间，其中1997-2002年我国能源净出口量占当年能源消费总量的10％左右。之后该数字迅速增长，2006年更高达18．8％。可见我国进口的能源（包括进口产品中的隐含能）又以出口产品的形式输出到了国外。从能源净消费的角度看我国并没有多消费世界上其他国家的能源。虽然我国近年来能源产品进口增加较快，但我国快速增长的净出口使这些能源又“隐含”在产品中离开了中国。
Energy embodied in international trade in China in 1997 - 2006 was accounted by input-output method. Taking embodied energy and actual energy into account, an optimistic estimation and a conservative estimation are made. The optimistic estimation revealed： China was a net energy export nation in 1997 - 2036. The net energy export are between 100 and 500 millions tons standard coal every year. In 1997- 2002, the net energy export accounted for about 10% of total energy consumption of that year. After 2002, the proportion increased rapidly. It reached to 18.8% in 2006. The conservative estimation revealed： in 1999- 2005, China had a little import of energy and in 1997, 1998 and 2006, China bad a little export of energy. The import of energy was in equilibrium with the export of energy. Both the optimistic estimation and conservative estimation revealed： the net export of embodied energy increased rapidly, which was consistent with the rapid increase of import of actual energy. The increase of export of commodities was an important factor resulting in the increase of China＇ s energy use.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
2008年第3期69-75,共7页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
科技部科技支撑项目“全球环境变化对我国的影响研究”资助
关键词
进出口贸易
隐含能
投入产出法
import and export
embodied energy
input-output method
