摘要
在分析1991年以来我国煤炭资源消费量变化以及煤炭消费占能源消费总量比重变化的基础上。指出电力、钢铁、建材和化工是煤炭资源的主要消耗行业，2005年它们消耗的煤炭占我国煤炭消费总量的85％。考虑这四大行业能源消费构成的特点、煤炭需求的主要决定因素、未来能源效率提高潜力及产业结构调整等因素，采用主要耗煤部门法预测2010、2020年我国国内煤炭需求量。考虑未来我国经济增长速度及我国节能目标等相关因素，采用单位产值能耗法。能源弹性系数法预测未来我国能源需求。然后采用相关部门对除煤炭以外的其他一次能源需求的预测，间接求得我国2010、2020年煤炭需求量。比较两种预测方法的结果。最终得出我国煤炭需求量为2010年26．2亿-28．5亿t、2020年30．9亿-34．9亿t．发电用煤仍是拉动煤炭消费增长的主要因素。
This paper analyzes China＇ s coal consumption changes since 1991 and proportion change of coal consumption to total energy consumption. It is argued that power, iron and steel, construction material and chemical industries are the four major coal consumption industries , which account for 85 % of total coal consumption in 2005. Taking into consideration of energy consumption composition characteristics of these four industries, major coal demand determinants, potentials of future energy efficiency improvement, and structural changes etc, this paper makes a forecast of 2010＇ s and 2020＇ s domestic coal demand in the four industries. Additionally, considering such relevant factors as our country＇s future economic growth rate and energy saving target, it forecasts future energy demand, adopting per unit GDP energy consumption method and energy elasticity coefficient method as well. Then it uses other institution＇ s results about future primary energy demand, excluding primary coal demand, for reference, and forecasts coal demands in 2010 and 2020 indirectly. After results comparison between these two methods, it is believed that coal demands in 2010 might be 2620 - 2850 million tons and 3 090 - 3 490 million tons in 2020, in which, coal used in power generation is still the driven force of coal demand growth.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
2008年第3期152-155,共4页
China Population,Resources and Environment
关键词
煤炭消费
需求预测
中国
coal consumption
demand forecast
China
